Multi-decadal projections of surface and interior pathways of the Fukushima Cesium-137 radioactive plume
Identifieur interne : 004D94 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004D93; suivant : 004D95Multi-decadal projections of surface and interior pathways of the Fukushima Cesium-137 radioactive plume
Auteurs : Vincent Rossi [Espagne, Australie] ; Erik Van Sebille [Australie] ; Alexander Sen Gupta [Australie] ; Véronique Garcon [France] ; Matthew H. England [Australie]Source :
- Deep-sea research. Part 1. Oceanographic research papers [ 0967-0637 ] ; 2013.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Trajectoire, Panache, Traceur radioactif, Césium 137, Modèle 3 dimensions, Modèle Lagrange, Modèle circulation générale, Simulation numérique, Circulation océanique, Pollution radioactive, Phénomène transport, Modèle prévision, Long terme, Accident réacteur fission, Accident nucléaire, Pollution eau, Eau mer, Radioisotope, Océan Pacifique Nord, Japon, Accident Fukushima, Eau modale.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Japon.
- topic : Pollution radioactive, Accident nucléaire.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Cesium 137, Fission reactor accidents, Forecast model, General circulation models, Japan, Lagrangian model, Long term, Mode water, North Pacific, Nuclear accident, Numerical simulation, Ocean circulation, Plume, Radioactive pollution, Radioactive tracers, Radioisotope, Seawater, Three dimensional model, Trajectory, Transport process, Water pollution.
Abstract
Following the March 2011 Fukushima disaster, large amounts of water contaminated with radionuclides, including Cesium-137, were released into the Pacific Ocean. With a half-life of 30.1 years, Cs-137 has the potential to travel large distances within the ocean. Using an ensemble of regional eddy-resolving simulations, this study investigates the long-term ventilation pathways of the leaked Cs-137 in the North Pacific Ocean. The simulations suggest that the contaminated plume would have been rapidly diluted below 10,000 Bq/m3 by the energetic Kuroshio Current and Kurushio Extension by July 2011. Based on our source function of 22 Bq/m3, which sits at the upper range of the published estimates, waters with Cs-137 concentrations > 10 Bq/m3 are projected to reach the northwestern American coast and the Hawaiian archipelago by early 2014. Driven by quasi-zonal oceanic jets, shelf waters north of 45°N experience Cs-137 levels of 10-30 Bq/m3 between 2014 and 2020, while the Californian coast is projected to see lower concentrations (10-20 Bq/m3) slightly later (2016-2025). This late but prolonged exposure is related to subsurface pathways of mode waters, where Cs-137 is subducted toward the subtropics before being upwelled from deeper sources along the southern Californian coast. The model suggests that Fukushima-derived Cs-137 will penetrate the interior ocean and spread to other oceanic basins over the next two decades and beyond. The sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the source function and to inter-annual to multi-decadal variability is discussed.
Affiliations:
- Australie, Espagne, France
- Midi-Pyrénées, Nouvelle-Galles du Sud, Occitanie (région administrative), Îles Baléares
- Sydney, Toulouse
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Le document en format XML
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Belin</s1><s2>Toulouse 31400</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><wicri:noRegion>31400</wicri:noRegion><placeName><settlement type="city">Toulouse</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Midi-Pyrénées</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="England, Matthew H" sort="England, Matthew H" uniqKey="England M" first="Matthew H." last="England">Matthew H. England</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales</s1><s2>Sydney 2052</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Sydney</settlement><region type="état">Nouvelle-Galles du Sud</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales</s1><s2>Sydney 2052</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Sydney</settlement><region type="état">Nouvelle-Galles du Sud</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Deep-sea research. Part 1. Oceanographic research papers</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Deep-sea res., Part 1, Oceanogr. res. pap.</title><idno type="ISSN">0967-0637</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Deep-sea research. Part 1. Oceanographic research papers</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Deep-sea res., Part 1, Oceanogr. res. pap.</title><idno type="ISSN">0967-0637</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Cesium 137</term><term>Fission reactor accidents</term><term>Forecast model</term><term>General circulation models</term><term>Japan</term><term>Lagrangian model</term><term>Long term</term><term>Mode water</term><term>North Pacific</term><term>Nuclear accident</term><term>Numerical simulation</term><term>Ocean circulation</term><term>Plume</term><term>Radioactive pollution</term><term>Radioactive tracers</term><term>Radioisotope</term><term>Seawater</term><term>Three dimensional model</term><term>Trajectory</term><term>Transport process</term><term>Water pollution</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Trajectoire</term><term>Panache</term><term>Traceur radioactif</term><term>Césium 137</term><term>Modèle 3 dimensions</term><term>Modèle Lagrange</term><term>Modèle circulation générale</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Circulation océanique</term><term>Pollution radioactive</term><term>Phénomène transport</term><term>Modèle prévision</term><term>Long terme</term><term>Accident réacteur fission</term><term>Accident nucléaire</term><term>Pollution eau</term><term>Eau mer</term><term>Radioisotope</term><term>Océan Pacifique Nord</term><term>Japon</term><term>Accident Fukushima</term><term>Eau modale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Japon</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Pollution radioactive</term><term>Accident nucléaire</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Following the March 2011 Fukushima disaster, large amounts of water contaminated with radionuclides, including Cesium-137, were released into the Pacific Ocean. With a half-life of 30.1 years, Cs-137 has the potential to travel large distances within the ocean. Using an ensemble of regional eddy-resolving simulations, this study investigates the long-term ventilation pathways of the leaked Cs-137 in the North Pacific Ocean. The simulations suggest that the contaminated plume would have been rapidly diluted below 10,000 Bq/m<sup>3</sup> by the energetic Kuroshio Current and Kurushio Extension by July 2011. Based on our source function of 22 Bq/m<sup>3</sup>, which sits at the upper range of the published estimates, waters with Cs-137 concentrations > 10 Bq/m<sup>3</sup> are projected to reach the northwestern American coast and the Hawaiian archipelago by early 2014. Driven by quasi-zonal oceanic jets, shelf waters north of 45°N experience Cs-137 levels of 10-30 Bq/m<sup>3</sup> between 2014 and 2020, while the Californian coast is projected to see lower concentrations (10-20 Bq/m<sup>3</sup>) slightly later (2016-2025). This late but prolonged exposure is related to subsurface pathways of mode waters, where Cs-137 is subducted toward the subtropics before being upwelled from deeper sources along the southern Californian coast. The model suggests that Fukushima-derived Cs-137 will penetrate the interior ocean and spread to other oceanic basins over the next two decades and beyond. The sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the source function and to inter-annual to multi-decadal variability is discussed.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>Espagne</li><li>France</li></country><region><li>Midi-Pyrénées</li><li>Nouvelle-Galles du Sud</li><li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li><li>Îles Baléares</li></region><settlement><li>Sydney</li><li>Toulouse</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Espagne"><region name="Îles Baléares"><name sortKey="Rossi, Vincent" sort="Rossi, Vincent" uniqKey="Rossi V" first="Vincent" last="Rossi">Vincent Rossi</name></region></country><country name="Australie"><region name="Nouvelle-Galles du Sud"><name sortKey="Rossi, Vincent" sort="Rossi, Vincent" uniqKey="Rossi V" first="Vincent" last="Rossi">Vincent Rossi</name></region><name sortKey="England, Matthew H" sort="England, Matthew H" uniqKey="England M" first="Matthew H." last="England">Matthew H. England</name><name sortKey="England, Matthew H" sort="England, Matthew H" uniqKey="England M" first="Matthew H." last="England">Matthew H. England</name><name sortKey="Sen Gupta, Alexander" sort="Sen Gupta, Alexander" uniqKey="Sen Gupta A" first="Alexander" last="Sen Gupta">Alexander Sen Gupta</name><name sortKey="Sen Gupta, Alexander" sort="Sen Gupta, Alexander" uniqKey="Sen Gupta A" first="Alexander" last="Sen Gupta">Alexander Sen Gupta</name><name sortKey="Van Sebille, Erik" sort="Van Sebille, Erik" uniqKey="Van Sebille E" first="Erik" last="Van Sebille">Erik Van Sebille</name><name sortKey="Van Sebille, Erik" sort="Van Sebille, Erik" uniqKey="Van Sebille E" first="Erik" last="Van Sebille">Erik Van Sebille</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Occitanie (région administrative)"><name sortKey="Garcon, Veronique" sort="Garcon, Veronique" uniqKey="Garcon V" first="Véronique" last="Garcon">Véronique Garcon</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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